Ukraine War and The South Asian Regional Security Environment 

The Forgotten Conflicts

The other major implication for the region is that given their immediate focus on the Ukraine situation, the rest of the international community will take their attention away from the various South Asian conflicts such as the pro-democracy struggle in Myanmar, and the situation in Afghanistan. 

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For India, located where it is, what happens in the region is of great significance to its national security. While there is little urgency in the situation in Myanmar, the situation in Afghanistan is different. A lack of focus on Afghanistan means several things: one, it will give a free pass to Pakistan, China and to some extent Russia and Iran to play their cards there, cutting India completely out of the equation; second, without external assistance and access to Afghanistan’s money in foreign banks, the ability of the Taliban government to rule to country even half-decently will be very difficult. The less it is able to rule the country, the more Afghanistan will become a host to foreign terror outfits. While this will have an immediate spillover on Pakistan, it will also have implications for India’s interests in Afghanistan and in the region in the longer run.

It doesn’t seem that the Ukraine war will end anytime soon given the many interests and parties involved in the conflict, and the military pushback by the Ukrainians. The more it lasts, the more implications it will have for the region, including for New Delhi.

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